Build tools around what you already do by hand
The best first project isn't a fancy idea, it's the boring task you already do by hand every week, like copying names between two lists or renaming a batch of files. That task is a perfect fit for a small tool, because you already know exactly what "right" looks like.
Picking a task you understand deeply means you can judge the tool's output instantly, without guessing. It also means the payoff is immediate: the very next time that weekly task comes up, you get the hour back instead of doing it by hand again. Starting with a task you already know beats inventing a new idea from scratch. I keep a running list of the boring tasks I still do by hand, and the ones that make my own build list are always the ones I could describe in one plain sentence.
Try this today: name the most repetitive task you did by hand this week, and describe it in plain sentences as if it were your next small tool project.